Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.202324 22.003767 23.998985 26.394324 29.221694 32.491810 36.619679
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.422390 19.766314 22.557653 26.203356 30.963978 37.168669 46.251084
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.503589 18.096073 21.347805 25.874655 32.290269 41.580279 57.313500
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.118272 16.832569 20.374504 25.562542 33.440012 45.988446 70.609236
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.080273 15.860169 19.605493 25.329780 34.562967 50.646043 87.449977
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.270159 15.087595 18.986961 25.170517 35.704308 55.700409 109.728996
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.489670 14.273285 18.203231 24.611809 36.006791 59.237313 132.511719
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.220806 14.143680 18.389974 25.605747 39.307251 70.705349 204.170690
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.700547 13.604878 17.897240 25.378415 40.192633 76.971751 277.585216
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.309487 13.223373 17.606340 25.450523 41.702886 85.933392 430.327562
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.989408 12.922325 17.410420 25.657451 43.558933 97.462804 819.628357
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.672514 12.603357 17.154914 25.713519 45.087658 109.422245 2170.962994
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.311376 12.200470 16.738626 25.427705 45.773899 119.265992 16556.116750
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.031723 11.908364 16.485651 25.433488 47.237772 134.812820 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.734485 11.572312 16.133364 25.196493 48.004966 148.447525 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.456029 11.251723 15.785539 24.928771 48.634450 162.957934 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.207632 10.966941 15.481049 24.718183 49.396133 180.646408 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.986676 10.715799 15.219381 24.570477 50.331127 202.945103 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.724290 10.386464 14.799892 24.035903 49.909336 213.103605 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.688602 10.424044 15.038884 24.991376 54.780686 303.389640 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.496017 10.194364 14.776701 24.773497 55.489080 347.006151 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.352066 10.039465 14.643250 24.842885 57.325488 433.214314 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.232209 9.919630 14.567530 25.041603 59.782139 584.377474 NaN